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The Day Ahead

Bond markets came into the domestic session in markedly weaker territory, but not for any overt reason.  Yields merely drifted defensively higher ahead of jobs data–a fairly understandable move considering that a strong number stood a good chance to do some serious damage. Not only did the headline miss expectations  (223k vs 230k forecast), but […]

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The Day Ahead

Greece’s chief export these days is red herring.  More of them hit the market overnight as Tsipras allegedly sent a letter saying he agreed to almost all of the conditions from EU creditors.  There was some speculation that this could lead to the referendum being canceled and a deal being worked out.  Naturally, German Bund […]

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Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage rates spiked to the highest levels of the year on Friday after hovering close to them for several days.  But news out of Europe over the weekend caused major movement in financial markets at the start of the day.  One of the biggest beneficiaries was the US bond market where Treasuries yields and mortgage […]

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The Week Ahead

After falling abruptly from June highs near 1.14 at the start of last week, the Euro currency finished Friday under 1.12.  Visually and actually, the move from 1.14 to 1.12 in the Euro is big, but not gigantic.  Sometimes it takes the Euro more than a month to move that much.  Sometimes it happens in […]

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Mortgage Rates Toda

Mortgage rates were already hovering near 2015 highs as of yesterday.  Today’s spike sent them easily above the previous annual high, set on June 10th.  Normally, day to day market movement isn’t big enough to cause a change in the actual contract rates being quoted.  In other words, it’s usually the upfront costs (or rebate) […]

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The Day Ahead

The trend continues to be unfriendly this morning.  Markets are defending against the possibility that the weekend brings a Greek debt deal.  Headlines have generally been feeding that speculation.  This is indeed a day where Greece-related news is having an impact, but again, it’s good to keep the big picture in mind. In other words, […]

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The Day Ahead

I realize that by including Greece in a headline that I’m not really helping the issue that I’m about to complain about (again), but perhaps the headline is informative enough to serve the purpose of ‘pushing back’ against the notion that Greece is a predominant market mover. Let’s be clear: Greece is certainly the talk […]

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The Day Ahead

We can talk about minutia or we can talk about the big picture.  Minute details vary as far as their suggested impact on bond market momentum.  In fact, a case can almost always be made for vastly different outcomes depending on which minutia are in focus.  For example, we could focus on yesterday’s stronger European […]

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Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage rates, true to recent form, can’t catch a break.  Just when we think we might be seeing a glimmer of hope, we’re treated to several days of painfully higher rates.  Of course, all of this is playing out over a fairly narrow range.  Indeed, today’s movement is better measured in closing costs as opposed […]

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The Day Ahead

Today’s calendar is packed by the time you consider all the European data that will be out by the time you read this.  All of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices (PMI’s) are out overnight.  The domestic session brings Durable Goods and New Home Sales–no slouches.  Then, of course, there’s headline potential out of Greece (again… […]

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Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage rates had been walking a slow, steady path of improvement since hitting 8 month highs on June 10th.  From then on, there were only 2 days where rates did NOT improve.  As of last Friday, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate quote for top tier scenarios was as close to 4% as it has […]

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The Week Ahead

Today is the Chicago Fed number as well as Existing Home Sales. Tomorrow is Durable Goods – always volatile – as well as the FHFA House Price Index and New Home Sales. Wednesday is another 1st Quarter GDP number but also the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) – the Fed likes to look at it. On […]

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Morning Report

Continuing concerns over the Greek debt crisis have forced the yield down 8bps at the opening, right now we’re hovering at 2.27% as news of the ECB bailout see’s a flight to the security of US Treasuries. There seems to be a genuine fear that Greece will default on it’s debt and exit the Euro. […]

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