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Rates Start the Year off Well

Mortgage rates improved slightly to begin 2017, bringing them to the lowest levels in nearly a month, on average. December 8th was the last time rates were lower. During December, conventional 30yr fixed quotes were straying into the 4.375%-4.5% territory for many lenders. Now, nearly every lender is back down to 4.25% at least, with […]

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Year End Glimmer of Hope

Mortgage rates moved lower today, somewhat significantly, depending on the lender. In many cases, quotes are an eighth of a point lower compared to Tuesday morning. Some lenders made the move yesterday. For others, today did the trick. In both cases, the “effective rate” (a hypothetical rate that accounts for lender-imposed closing costs) fell at […]

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Mortgage Rates Surge

Mortgage rates skyrocketed (relatively) following today’s rate hike from the Fed. It wasn’t the rate hike itself, however, that markets find most troubling. In fact, the hike was almost universally expected. Rather, this was one of the 4 Fed meetings of 2016 that included updated economic projections (sometimes referred to as “the dots” due to […]

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Fed Rate Hike Has Finally Arrived

Thee Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday. It signified the Fed’s confidence in the improving U.S. economy. Rising rates will affect millions of Americans, including home buyers, savers and investors. Fed officials raised its target for short-term interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 0.50% and 0.75%. […]

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Another Bad Day for Rates

It’s been a long time since anyone could say that top tier conventional conforming 30yr fixed mortgage rates were at 4%. Indeed, even last Monday, the thought of 4% rates would border on preposterous. But what a difference a week makes! Over the past 3 days, rates have moved higher at a pace that’s only […]

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Worst Day for Rates in 3 Years

Mortgage Rates skyrocketed today, relative to their average range of movement. It was the single biggest move higher since the days of the taper tantrum in mid-2013. Virtually all lenders are quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates that are at least an eighth of a point higher versus yesterday. Over the past decade, you can count […]

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Weak NFP No Help to Rates

Mortgage Rates were modestly higher today, despite a weaker-than-expected Employment Situation (aka NFP, nonfarm payrolls, or simply “the jobs report”). NFP is the most important number on any given month in terms of market-moving economic data. When NFP is lower than expected, rates tend to move lower. Even though today’s NFP didn’t fall too terribly […]

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Week Ahead – Brexit Looms Large

The latest chapter for global bond markets began with the Fed’s attempts in mid-May to ‘convince’ investors that they were serious about hiking rates in June.  The Fed’s April meeting minutes (released May 18th) marked the climax, but even they provided the first hint of how this chapter would unfold: “Some participants noted that global […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates barely budged, yet again today.  But that’s not such a bad thing considering they are very close to 3-year lows.  On top of that, among the lenders with detectable changes today, most were in a friendly direction.  Bottom line, the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote remains 3.625% on top tier scenarios.  Several of […]

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Week Ahead

Very light economic calendar this week Fed Announcement next week Yellen speaks later today (jobs data will invariably come up) bond yields already near range boundary, but this time with momentum only just beginning to turn There are two measures of momentum that I’ve been including in most of 2016’s chart: fast and slow stochastics. […]

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Day Ahead

Strong, stable payroll growth is old news.  Yet another NFP reading north of 150k or another 5%-ish unemployment reading are just a few more bricks in fairly meaningless wall.  After all, that wall has failed to produce meaningful inflation in the same way its past examples have, and it’s inflation that the Fed needs to […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates were generally unchanged to begin the short work-week for financial markets, though that wasn’t the case at first.  Earlier this morning, most lenders were quoting higher rates than those seen last Friday.  Markets improved rather significantly during the course of the day, allowing most lenders to ‘reprice’ to lower rates, thus bringing them back […]

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Day Ahead (of a long weekend)

GDP at 8:30am won’t matter Consumer Sentiment at 10am won’t matter Yellen at 10:30am (and 1:15pm) won’t matter All of the above–but especially Yellen–can matter next week As I like to point out from time to time, Wall Street and bond trading desks at the CME in Chicago are staffed by human beings.  With all […]

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Day Ahead

Less about data and more about Fed outlook 3.5-day weekend is also a consideration for tradeflows 2 distinct options correspond to holding vs breaking the current trend Can’t read too much into today’s trading though Today’s chart contains the familiar consolidative trend–the converging teal lines that connect most of 2016’s highs and lows.  The way […]

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