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Week Ahead – Brexit Looms Large

The latest chapter for global bond markets began with the Fed’s attempts in mid-May to ‘convince’ investors that they were serious about hiking rates in June.  The Fed’s April meeting minutes (released May 18th) marked the climax, but even they provided the first hint of how this chapter would unfold: “Some participants noted that global […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates barely budged, yet again today.  But that’s not such a bad thing considering they are very close to 3-year lows.  On top of that, among the lenders with detectable changes today, most were in a friendly direction.  Bottom line, the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote remains 3.625% on top tier scenarios.  Several of […]

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Week Ahead

Very light economic calendar this week Fed Announcement next week Yellen speaks later today (jobs data will invariably come up) bond yields already near range boundary, but this time with momentum only just beginning to turn There are two measures of momentum that I’ve been including in most of 2016’s chart: fast and slow stochastics. […]

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Day Ahead

Strong, stable payroll growth is old news.  Yet another NFP reading north of 150k or another 5%-ish unemployment reading are just a few more bricks in fairly meaningless wall.  After all, that wall has failed to produce meaningful inflation in the same way its past examples have, and it’s inflation that the Fed needs to […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates were generally unchanged to begin the short work-week for financial markets, though that wasn’t the case at first.  Earlier this morning, most lenders were quoting higher rates than those seen last Friday.  Markets improved rather significantly during the course of the day, allowing most lenders to ‘reprice’ to lower rates, thus bringing them back […]

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Day Ahead (of a long weekend)

GDP at 8:30am won’t matter Consumer Sentiment at 10am won’t matter Yellen at 10:30am (and 1:15pm) won’t matter All of the above–but especially Yellen–can matter next week As I like to point out from time to time, Wall Street and bond trading desks at the CME in Chicago are staffed by human beings.  With all […]

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Day Ahead

Less about data and more about Fed outlook 3.5-day weekend is also a consideration for tradeflows 2 distinct options correspond to holding vs breaking the current trend Can’t read too much into today’s trading though Today’s chart contains the familiar consolidative trend–the converging teal lines that connect most of 2016’s highs and lows.  The way […]

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Week Ahead

After 2012, low rates in US have followed Europe Even then, US rates have set their own limits Now we’re bouncing along those limits again and ‘consolidating’ The next distinct move begins a new era for rates We’re just waiting to see what direction it will go There are simple and complex approaches to understanding […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates held mostly steady today, as some lenders were just barely higher and others slightly lower than yesterday’s latest levels.  With that, the damage seen on Wednesday is still very much intact, meaning that almost any scenario is now being quoted an eighth of a point higher in rate on the average conventional 30yr fixed […]

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Day Ahead

Yesterday was a wake-up call, forcing us to think about defense vs offense Shorter term trends already under attack longer term trends aren’t too far away from being under attack revisiting longer term trend boundary would be scary Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes and corresponding market movement served as a wake-up call for our sleepy, little, low […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates moved higher today as investors sold assets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed Minutes.  Asset prices move lower when sellers outweigh buyers, and when the price of bonds moves lower, rates rise.  This was most evident in the shorter-term bonds that react more to the Fed Funds rate.  In other words, 2yr Treasury yields rose more […]

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Day Ahead

“Bad” is a relative term, but momentum may be shifting Today’s trading will be pivotal in determining that The stakes are not too high, for now Bond markets have been enjoying a good run since the last Fed meeting, with rates moving almost exclusively lower.  In fact, we haven’t had one single instance of rates […]

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Week Ahead

Bonds have stayed strong, despite apparent headwinds Technicals suggest we’re due for a bounce Such a bounce could still be part of a broader, positive theme We could be waiting a while to find out if it’s negative Welcome to the 3rd week of May.  Bond markets are faced with a fairly tough decision.  They’ll […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates found their footing today, moving sideways to slightly lower after losing ground the past two days.  Earlier this week, rates hit their lowest levels in 3 years.  While today’s improvements don’t quite get us back there, they keep us very close.  Perhaps even more importantly, underlying bond markets ended the week with an even […]

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