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Week Ahead

After 2012, low rates in US have followed Europe Even then, US rates have set their own limits Now we’re bouncing along those limits again and ‘consolidating’ The next distinct move begins a new era for rates We’re just waiting to see what direction it will go There are simple and complex approaches to understanding […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates held mostly steady today, as some lenders were just barely higher and others slightly lower than yesterday’s latest levels.  With that, the damage seen on Wednesday is still very much intact, meaning that almost any scenario is now being quoted an eighth of a point higher in rate on the average conventional 30yr fixed […]

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Day Ahead

Yesterday was a wake-up call, forcing us to think about defense vs offense Shorter term trends already under attack longer term trends aren’t too far away from being under attack revisiting longer term trend boundary would be scary Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes and corresponding market movement served as a wake-up call for our sleepy, little, low […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates moved higher today as investors sold assets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed Minutes.  Asset prices move lower when sellers outweigh buyers, and when the price of bonds moves lower, rates rise.  This was most evident in the shorter-term bonds that react more to the Fed Funds rate.  In other words, 2yr Treasury yields rose more […]

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Day Ahead

“Bad” is a relative term, but momentum may be shifting Today’s trading will be pivotal in determining that The stakes are not too high, for now Bond markets have been enjoying a good run since the last Fed meeting, with rates moving almost exclusively lower.  In fact, we haven’t had one single instance of rates […]

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Week Ahead

Bonds have stayed strong, despite apparent headwinds Technicals suggest we’re due for a bounce Such a bounce could still be part of a broader, positive theme We could be waiting a while to find out if it’s negative Welcome to the 3rd week of May.  Bond markets are faced with a fairly tough decision.  They’ll […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates found their footing today, moving sideways to slightly lower after losing ground the past two days.  Earlier this week, rates hit their lowest levels in 3 years.  While today’s improvements don’t quite get us back there, they keep us very close.  Perhaps even more importantly, underlying bond markets ended the week with an even […]

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Day Ahead

Corporate issuance expected to continue Treasury Auction cycle in full swing with 10’s today and 30’s tomorrow Overseas auctions add to global supply Bottom line: lots of debt inventory for sale right now = implicit price pressure Negative connotations aside, imagine a car dealership that periodically receives shipments of its best-selling models.  Car buyers know […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage Rates moved sideways today, taking them one step closer to officially claiming the title of “3 year lows.”  Tomorrow marks the three year anniversary of the Wall Street Journal article that began the early days of the ‘taper tantrum’–the jarring move higher in rates that resulted from markets coming to terms with the end of […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates held steady today, marking the 9th straight day without a move higher.  6 of those 9 days have seen mild to moderate improvements, ultimately bringing rates back within striking distance of 2016’s lows.  Only a few days in early February have been better and from there it’s only a short distance to all-time lows […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates moved lower again today as stock markets tumbled.  The weakness in stocks was led by the European banking sector with several big names falling roughly 8 percent!  Although mortgage rates in the US are by no means a factor of European stock prices, nothing too big happens in global financial markets without its effects being […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates moved just slightly lower today, despite the fact that bond markets were suggesting a move in the other direction.  Mortgage rates are primarily determined by the prices of mortgage-backed-securities (MBS), which tend to behave a lot like 10yr Treasuries over time.  Both Treasuries and MBS lost ground today, meaning their prices moved lower and […]

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The Day Ahead

Technicals were looking good late last week But some risk that month-end trading was painting a rosy picture we’ll find out this week! Last week marked the first convincing attempt on the part of the bond market to break the uptrend that began on April 8th.  That trend carried 10yr yields from just under 1.7 […]

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Rate Roundup

Mortgage rates continued lower for a second straight day, ultimately making it back to levels not seen since last Tuesday.  Today’s improvements are partly an extension of yesterday’s reaction to the Fed Announcement, but also acknowledge the end of this week’s Treasury auction process.  This often involves a slight artificial pressure toward higher yields beginning on […]

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