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The Day Ahead

After rallying steadily for more than a month and after seeing that rally accelerate quickly into Monday afternoon, Treasuries and MBS underwent 2.5 days of correction, bringing them back in line with the previous trend, or possibly worse.  If they can manage to hold steady-to-stronger day-over-day levels, it will end up looking like the rally […]

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Mid Day Update

Much has been made recently of the surprising lack of response on the part of bond markets to the massive sell-off in stocks.  That shoe is now on the other foot as bond markets remain little-changed despite the S&P being up 37 points. While the day is still fairly young, this is a resilient showing […]

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The Day Ahead

You’ll see more and more of this in the coming days/weeks–the various iterations of “China dumping US Treasuries at an insane pace!”  Oh no! Wait… so what? Here’s a more sober assessment from yesterday, but also highlights the problem of pundits getting caught up in stuff that doesn’t matter.  Doomsday econo-blog puts out a seemingly […]

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Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage rates continued slightly higher today, though they appeared to have second thoughts about that at first.  In fact, several lenders made mid-day improvements to rate sheets as bond markets (which drive rates for mortgages, among other things) looked to be holding their ground.  Bonds began to slide in the afternoon, following a weak 5yr […]

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Mid Day Update

Bigger-picture trading themes are still driving the bond market movement this week.  Namely, bonds had been eager to consolidate more than a month of improvements, but had held off until yesterday due to panicked selling in global risk markets (stocks, certain commodities, and currencies).  In other words, yields had been “pulled lower against their will.” […]

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The Day Ahead

Recent volatility isn’t just the product of illiquid summertime trading against the backdrop of surprising announcements from global central banks.  Markets are definitely in the process of making big decisions.  At issue is the timing of the next downturn in the domestic economic cycle.  In other words, every so many years, stocks/bonds/growth/everything takes a dip […]

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Mid Day Update

In financial markets, a flight-to-safety generally refers to investors moving out of riskier assets (like stocks, and certain commodities) and into safer havens (like Treasuries and other virtually risk-free bonds).  The past 4 days have seen a sharp increase in risk aversion on top of a similar move that was already in progress for the […]

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The Day Ahead

Given our focus on trends in mortgage rates, we often discuss lenders’ intraday reprices.  At the moment, however, there is an entirely different kind of ‘repricing’ happening.  Simply put, global economic reality is being repriced.  The jig is apparently up for China’s massaged economic stats and the rest of the global macro-economy seems none too […]

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The Day Ahead

You know how that Monday morning alarm clock can be the most- well… ‘alarming’ of the week?  It’s not that different for the opening bells of various financial markets.  This week’s rude awakening began in China, where the same old story continues to play out (weaker growth outlook, big drop in stocks, and further currency […]

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Weekly Roundup

Mortgage rates moved moderately lower yet again.  This extends a winning streak that began on July 14th, making it the longest positive trend in 2015.  If this seems paradoxical in light of everything you may have heard about the Fed hiking rates this year, that’s normal.  Market participants and pundits have a long history of […]

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Mid Day Update

The rest of the global marketplace is harshing the mellow of US bond markets.  Treasuries and MBS are wondering what all the fuss is about, having had their nice rally already.  Now they’re watching the rest of the world catch up, all the while not looking too happy about being dragged to even stronger levels. […]

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Mid Day Update

By the time yesterday’s FOMC Minutes were out, European and Asian markets were already closed.  As such, their overnight reaction was not too surprising.  Stocks and bond yields moved lower, and some of that momentum came back to benefit US bond markets.  By the 8am open, Treasuries were 3bps lower and Fannie 3.5s were a […]

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The Day Ahead

As we discussed in yesterday’s close, The general message received from the FOMC Minutes is that the Fed is far more dependent on incoming data than their recent rhetoric might suggest.  By “recent rhetoric,” I’m referring to various speeches and Q&A where Fed officials have opined on the merit of raising rates at least once […]

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